On October 4, the Global Energy Association held a panel session Energy of the Future: the Three Factors of Sustainable Development at the Russian Energy Week international forum. The heads of international organizations and leading scientists of the world determined how the introduction of digital technologies and the transition to low-carbon fuel systems has affected the development of the global fuel and energy complex, and also revealed new ways of using energy that will cover the growing demand for energy resources.
A large-scale transition from the traditional way of generating, distributing and managing energy resources to a new digital power grid of the future is one of the main trends in the energy sector. The technologies of artificial intelligence, machine learning, the Internet of things, blockchain, big data, and additive manufacturing are able to respond to the global challenges of the energy industry and set the standards for a new stage of technological development. Digital solutions will reduce losses in the transmission of electrical energy from the generation source to the consumer, improve the security and reliability of power supply, optimally redistribute energy flows, and reduce the cost of energy resources and manufacturing processes. “According to BP’s technology outlook, the digital revolution will cover many areas, including the oil and gas one: by 2050, 30% of electricity generation capacity will be provided from distributed sources, the volume of recoverable oil and gas will increase by 10%, the cost of producing one barrel of oil equivalent will be reduced by 10%”, said Steven Griffith (UAE), the Global Energy Prize International Award Committee member, Senior Vice President for Research and Development, Khalifa University of Science and Technology (KUST). The speaker added that to speed up digital transformation processes, joint efforts by both states and corporations were needed. First of all, research in the field of high technologies is needed, along with investments and human resources. Dominique Fache (France), the Global Energy Prize expert, Member of the Board of Directors of Sofia-Antipolis Technopark, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Russian Technological Fund, also spoke about the future of digital technologies. He noted that should be taken into account the risks that digitalization entailed, for example, energy systems becoming vulnerable to cyber attacks.
The second aspect considered by the speakers in the context of the future energy industry was the transition to carbon-free fuel systems. Martin Green (Australia), the world’s leading expert in the field of silicon photovoltaics, the 2018 Global Energy Prize laureate, Head of Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics, is convinced that due to the reduction in the solar panels maintenance cost, solar energy is going to dominate the global energy mix over the next decades. “Prices for photovoltaic modules have dropped by 30% in 2018, and will continue to fall”, the speaker said. Reducing the cost of solar energy generation makes it most suitable for peak power plants and trunk supply. “Solar cells with a PERC element (solar cell with passivated emitter and rear surfaces) this year reached 50 per cent of world production with this share rapidly increasing. It is expected that by 2040 these batteries will cover all demand”, the speaker added. In addition, the abandonment of traditional energy sources such as coal and gas will contribute to the achievement of the Paris Climate Agreement objectives. The Global Energy Prize International Award Committee Chairman, Member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, Rodney John Allam (UK), also said that it was important to prevent deterioration of the environment. One of his theses was that the “clean” use of the fossil resources could guarantee “green” future. One of his projects is a new type of power plant with zero CO2 emissions. The so called “Allam cycle” allows to capture over 97% of the generated carbon dioxide. It is characterized by high (up to 59%) efficiency with electricity generation equal to that of traditional gas turbine units. Besides, the “Allam cycle” produces electricity at a cost of 6 cents per 1 KW/h, just like ordinary gas turbines. Regarding the issue of low-carbon fuel, according to Rodney John Allam, electric cars are only an intermediate step towards achieving a carbon-free environment. He believes that hydrogen cars on fuel cells will be the best solution. In his turn, Rae Kwon Chung (South Korea), the Global Energy Prize International Award Committee member, UN Secretary-General’s High-level Expert and Leaders Panel (HELP) on water and disasters, Adviser to the Chair. Member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007, pointed out that the main challenges hindering the sustainable development of mankind were the problems of energy shortage and the uneven distribution of energy resources. According to the speaker, the Super Grid project of the Silk Road countries could eliminate the energy deficit of the underdeveloped regions. The concept of the program involves the distribution of renewable energy sources in the countries of the Belt and Road initiative. The initiative was proposed by China in order to create new trade and transport routes, and an economic corridor linking the countries of Asia and Europe. Sun Xiansheng (PRC), Secretary General of the International Energy Forum (IEF), agreed with Rae Kwon Chung and added that projects to combine energy capacities of different countries would ensure stable development of the participating countries and serve long-term goals of energy, environmental and economic development.
The experts have also concluded that new ways of using energy will be the third factor in the sustainable development of the future energy. Sergey Alekseenko (Russia), the 2018 Global Energy Prize laureate, Head of heat and mass transfer’s laboratory of Institute of Thermophysics of the RAS Siberian Branch, is an active supporter of geothermal energy, which is divided into two components: hydrogeothermal energy, that is, hot groundwater resources whose reserves are not so great, and petrothermal energy, which implies the use of heat from dry rocks at depths of 3 to 10 km. The temperature at such depths reaches 350 degrees Celsium. According to Alekseenko, the deep heat resources will last for 50,000 years; this would afford practically inexhaustible and environmentally safe energy resources. Continuing the theme of future trends in the energy sector, the expert noted the need to develop environmentally friendly and efficient technologies for the processing of fossil fuels (combined-cycle plants, deep processing of coal), as well as to achieve dominance of renewable energy in the energy mix with solar energy prevailing. According to Klaus Riedle (Germany), before looking for new ways to extract and use energy, the world community should focus on the efficient use and distribution of energy resources. “Energy efficiency and energy saving will allow to meet the growing demand for energy, increase industrial productivity, limit greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, and reduce the cost of maintaining energy infrastructure. Energy saving technologies can be implemented everywhere. Say, construction of houses with low energy consumption, or implementation of systems that consume 30% less energy, without affecting the production amounts”. The speaker added that the implementation of such a program required both political will and public interest. People should take the initiative in replacing the familiar traditional technology with energy-saving. Governments, on the other hand, should stimulate the population with social benefits and subsidies. The Klaus Riedle’s thesis on the key role of governments in achieving the effective energy of the future was supported by Liu Hongpeng (PRC), the Global Energy Prize Expert, Director of the Energy Division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). He added that in their energy policy, the countries of the world should set a course towards development of the R&D sphere, and issue grants for the development of intelligent technologies.
