Oil demand forecast for 2020 declines
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Difficulties linked to the COVID pandemic have depressed 2020 forecasts for oil demand.

The international Energy Agency (IEA) said it expected demand for oil to sink to 91.3 million barrels per day – a drop of 8.8 million B/D from last year’s figure and 0.4 million B/D below its previous 2020 forecast.

The IEA revised its forecast as it lacked confidence in any notion that a vaccine would have any effect on the pandemic in the next few months. It said it was too early to say when a vaccine would allow for a return to normal activity and saw no significant influence on demand for oil in the first six months of 2021.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised downward its forecast by 0.3 million B/D to 90 million B/D. OPEC based its forecast on expected lower demand for oil in member-states of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and a series of new restrictions imposed in connection with the “second wave” of COVID.

In its 2021 forecast, OPEC said demand for oil would rise by 6.2 million B/D to reach 96.26 million B/D – a decline from its earlier forecast of a rise of 6.5 million B/D. It said weak demand in the transport sector and for fuel would persist through the first half of next year.

The next ministerial meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers is scheduled for 30th November-1st December. Ministers are expected to adopt a decision on oil production quotas for the beginning of next year.

Media reports say OPEC+ is considering a postponement in increasing oil production levels until the second or third quarters of 2021, depending on the market situation.

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