Despite continued restrictions on air travel, consumption of aviation fuel will rise by 17 %, but will still be 30 % less than the pre-crisis level.
The discrepancy with 2019 levels will be less for world-wide demand for petrol. That figure fell by 3 million bpd in 2020 and in 2021 it will climb by 1.8 million bpd.
The most rapid return to normal will be with diesel fuel – during the pandemic, there were greater requirements for truck hauling than for the use of cars. Diesel consumption in 2020 fell only by 1.8 million bpd and in 2021 will rise by 1.5 million bpd.
Among countries that are heavy consumers of oil, China came through the crisis relatively well – demand in 2020 was even higher than in 2019. In the United States, demand will be lower 2021 by 0.8 million bpd and in the EU lower by 0.4 million bpd.
The IEA figures are in line with OPEC’s estimates.
“World oil demand is…estimated by the Secretariat to have contracted by a very significant 9.5 million bpd in 2020and is forecast to grow by around 6 million bpd in 2021,” OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in his April address, posted on the OPEC website.
Stark figures were also noted in the April forecast of the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy – which predicted a rise of 5.5 million bpd in 2021 after a decline of 9.1 million bpd in 2020.
The IEA said the effect of the pandemic will be negated by 2022 when demand will reach 101.3 million bpd – eclipsing the 2019 level of 101.2 million bpd. And in 2022, the OPEC+ deal aimed at balancing the oil market against the background of COVID-19 will come to an end.
And this year will see a gradual recovery of other sectors of world energy, according to forecasts by the IEA’s Global Energy Review.
+ After a 4 % decline in world-wide coal demand, the figure will rise by 4.5 %
+ World-wide demand for natural gas will rise by year-end by 3.2 % (after a decline of 1.9 % in 2020).
+ Production of renewable energy sources, which rose by 7 % in 2020, will climb by 8 % in 2021 and the share of renewables in the world-wide power generation structure – with due account for hydro power — will rise from 29 % to 30 % (compared to 27 % in 2020)
But the recovery of demand for energy will inevitably trigger a rise in CO2 emissions, according to the authors of the Global Energy Review – these declined by 5.8 % in 2020 but their volume will rise by 4.8 % in 2021.