The price of Brent crude could tumble to $10 a barrel by 2050 if the majority of countries act decisively in working to achieve the aims of the Paris climate agreement, according to analysts Wood Mackenzie.
The analysts say that if the world seeks to limit a rise in temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius, it will lead to a real revolution in energy and sharply reduce global demand for oil.
The scenario of an accelerated energy transition is not the main thesis considered, but one of the possible outcomes. This scenario presumes a sharp decline in demand and prices for oil. The main suppliers of oil would remain producers of inexpensive raw materials in the Middle East.
According to WoodMac data, by 2050, OPEC will probably have a market share of more than 50 %, but with less control over that market – a steep decline in demand will not allow it to manage the market and support prices in the same way that it does now.
As a result, the price of oil will start to fall already in this decade – by 2030, the price could stand at $40 and by 2050, from $10-$18 a barrel.
But demand for gas will remain “resilient”, the report said and that will allow for coal to be replaced by gas and for the use of gas in production of hydrogen.
Resilient demand for gas will require investment. And depending on the extent to which oil falls in price, “gas will eventually trade at a premium to oil,…accelerating the shift of capital investment towards the sector”.
