No return to Russian pre-crisis oil production figures before 2025
There will be no return to Russia’s record pre-crisis oil production figures before 2025, The Ministry of Economic Development said.

    This year, production levels will remain at about the “Covid” level of 2020 – with a total of 512.5 million tonnes according to the ministry’s scenarios recommended for inclusion in budget preparations over the next three years.

    That figure is quoted in both the base scenario and the conservative forecast issued by the ministry. No increase in production is expected by officials until 2022 – when growth of 7 % is anticipated up to 549.8 million tonnes in the base scenario and 545.8 in the conservative scenario. Over the two following years, production growth is expected up to 560 million tonnes (556 million in the conservative scenario), with the record level of 2019 unattainable until at least 2025.

    The ministry anticipates a decline in oil experts this year of nearly 4 % — but forecasts growth of 12 % for next year.

    Prices for Russia’s Urals crude are expected to rise to a little more than $60 a barrel compared to $45 – based on an overall positive set of market factors. But in the following years Russian oil prices are expected to decline to $54. The Russian central bank had earlier raised its forecast for 2021 oil prices to $60 from $50. Over the following two years, the central bank anticipates oil prices of $50-55 a barrel.     Last year, Russian produced 476.3 million tonnes of oil or nearly 513 million tonnes with due consideration for condensate – that would make a decline of more than 8 %. In 2019, prior to the Covid pandemic, Russian production hit a post-Soviet record level of 568 million tonnes.


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April 2021