In such an instance, the South American country could end up providing 23 % of world shelf supplies.
According to forecasts, Brazilian production in 2025 from already approved sites could total 1.16 million bpd of oil and condensate. And there could be a further 169,000 bpd from projects yet to be approved. Between 2021 and 2025, 29 oil projects will get underway, including Bacalhau, Buzios V and Lula Oeste, which, all told, are to provide by that time 44 % of production of oil and condensate in the country.
“While Saudi Arabia dominates liquids production globally, mostly from already producing projects, Brazil leads crude and condensate production from upcoming/new projects,” said Effuah Alleyne, senior oil and gas analyst at GlobalData. “Brazil’s prolific pre-salt layer in the Santos Basin has produced a strong portfolio of offshore projects operated mainly by Petrobras.” Alleyne said that thanks to Brazilian efforts, shelf production in South America will overtake production levels in North America by 2023.
The figures will put the United States in second place in shelf production, followed by Norway with a production level of 508,000 bpd. The largest world companies in terms of shelf production will be Petrobras (768,000 bpd), the China National Offshore Oil company (371,000 bpd) and Equinor (331,000 bpd).
Brazil, having discovered huge deposits of hydrocarbons on its pre-salt later, can operate with low production costs. According to analysts, these amount to $35 a barrel – a figure that could decline to less than $30.
According to forecasts from Brazil’s oil agency, investment in exploration and production could total $13 billion this year.