At this time, “black gold” accounts for about 30 % of the world energy balance. By 2025, thanks to economic growth, that share could climb to 35 % and oil consumption could rise to 104 million barrels per day from 90.6 million bpd last year.
After 2026, consumption volumes will start to decline. The share of renewable sources by 2045, according to OPEC, will exceed 10 %. And the main factor limiting further growth in oil consumption, it said, will be electric vehicles. By 2045, up to 20 % of vehicles on the road will be electric, OPEC said.
OPEC is anticipating the active recovery of oil production in the United States, beginning next year. Production will hit a peak by 2030 and then begin to fall. As the report indicates, the United States will boost oil production in 2021 in difficult-of-access strata from 11.5 million bpd in 2020 to 14.8 million bpd in 2026. A peak in production will be reached at 15.2 million bpd at the end of the decade. The overall volume of production of liquid hydrocarbons will increase from 17.6 million bpd in 2020 to 20.5 million bpd in 2026 but by 2045, that indicator will decline to 16.9 million bpd.
Oil production will also decline in other “non OPEC” countries. They will hit peak production of 71 million bpd by 2030 and by 2045 that indicator will dip to 65.5 million bpd. Countries lowering production will include Canada, China, Colombia, Indonesia and Norway. OPEC countries will be able to boost production from 35.7 million bpd in 2030 to 42.7 million bpd in 2045. Their share of production will rise from 33 % at present to 39 % in 2045.