The Rystad Energy classifies reserves into four categories: the proven reserves, which are conservatively estimated; the probable reserves, which may be within the existing fields; the reserves of the explored deposits where commercial production has not begun yet; and, finally, the potential reserves of the undiscovered deposits. The first group reserves decreased by 11 billion barrels (to 298 billion), the second – by 9 billion barrels (to 250 billion), the third – by 7 billion barrels (to 670 billion), and the fourth – by 126 billion barrels (to 354 billion; taking into account the fact that the same reserves can “flow” from one category to another).
At the same time, OPEC and non-OPEC countries are largely characterised by a divergent trend. For example, OPEC reserves of the first group decreased by 16 billion barrels, while the reserves of the non-OPEC countries increased by 5 billion barrels; and vice versa, non-OPEC producers are twice as fast, in comparison with the cartel, in the destocking rate of the fourth group (86 billion barrels against 39 billion). One of the reasons was the legislative restrictions on production, which are getting more widespread in Europe and North America. For example, Denmark has banned to issue new licenses for development and production in its own water area of the North Sea.
“While the drop in oil availability is positive news for the environment, it may threaten to further destabilize an already precarious energy landscape.” Per Magnus Nielsen, head of analytics, told the Rystad Energy. “Energy security is a matter of redundancy; we need more of everything to meet the growing demand for transport and any action to curb supply will quickly backfire on pump prices worldwide, including large producers such as the US.”
Global investments in oil production began to decline even before the COVID-19 pandemic. Their volume decreased from $526 billion in 2018 to $491 billion in 2019, and reached $352 billion in the 2020 crisis, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). A subsequent revival of the oil market helped to restore investments: in 2021, they rose to $421 billion, and, according to the IEA forecast, their volume in 2022 will reach $446 billion, but still will not return to the pre-Covid levels.
