China and India have been shaping the dynamics of coal-fired power generation for years. The share of the two countries in the global construction of coal-fired TPPs never went below 70% in the period from 2010 to 2021. Last year provided an exception in this regard: the overall share of China and India dropped to 67% for a number of reasons.
Firstly, some countries accelerated the construction of new capacities: for instance, Japan brought 1.8 GW of coal-fired TPPs into operation in 2021 and 3 GW in 2022; in case of Pakistan, those indicators stood at 30 megawatts (MW) and 2.6 GW respectively, and for Cambodia, 50 MW and 700 MW respectively. Whereas in Cambodia and Pakistan coal-fired TPPs cover the demand for cheap and accessible energy amid the continuing population boom, in Japan such TPPs help hedge the power supply risks that have emerged after the country’s decision to partially opt out of nuclear energy: out of 60 nuclear reactors with a total capacity of 48.8 gigawatts (GW) that were built in the period from 1963 to 2009, as few as 17 reactors with the overall capacity of 16.3 GW are still in operation, while the other 43 reactors totaling 32.5 GW have been either suspended or shut down completely. The share of NPPs in Japan’s energy mix went down from 26% in 2010 to 6% in 2021, which is why Japan needs sources that can cover fluctuations in demand regardless of weather conditions.
Secondly, China and India are actively developing their renewable and nuclear energy sectors. In 2022, China connected to the grid two new nuclear reactors: the sixth power unit at the Fuqing NPP (1,075 MW in capacity) in southeastern China and the sixth unit at the Hongyanhe NPP (1,061 MW) in the northeastern province of Liaoning. According to China’s National Energy Administration, the year 2022 also saw the commissioning of 87.4 GW of solar power plants (SPPs) and 37.6 GW of wind power plants (WPPs), which exceeds the overall capacity of all SPPs and WPPs currently operating in Africa, South America and the Middle East. Meanwhile, according to JMK Research, India brought into operation 14 GW of solar panels and 1.8 GW of wind generators in 2022. This inevitably affected the overall construction rates of coal-fired TPPs (30.3 GW for China and India taken together), which turned out to be the lowest since 2003.
Finally, another factor is the growing interest towards coal-fired power generation in the countries, which have not built solid fuel-based capacities in a long time. For instance, the year 2022 saw Argentina bring 120 MW of coal-fired TPPs into operation and Zimbabwe do the same for 50 MW of coal-fired capacities although these countries did not build a single coal-fired power plant between 2000 and 2021.
