The photo is sourced from tonkosti.ru
Extreme temperatures are most likely to occur in the period from June through September. According to the baseline scenario, the mildest conditions will be observed in the coastal plain in the west of the country where the air temperature might reach 35°C during the heat waves. Meanwhile, mountainous regions could go up to 42°C, with the Negev Desert in the south and Israel’s northern valleys hitting 44°C. Finally, temperatures in the Arabah desert bordering Jordan might climb to 49°C.
“In Israel, extreme heat waves have been observed earlier, approximately every two to four years, including in 2010, 2012, 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2021,” says Dmitry Solovyov, senior researcher at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He adds that these waves are becoming more frequent in Israel. “This is related to the climate crisis and global warming, which cause extreme weather events, such as heat, drought, floods and forest fires, to become more frequent and intense. Israel is also affected by local factors, namely, its geographical location, terrain relief and proximity to the sea, which can amplify or lessen the impact of heat on the population and the economy,” he notes.
Solovyov estimates that specific power consumption could rise by 10% during the heat waves, intensifying the risks of breakdowns in the country’s energy system. Gas-fired power plants play a key role in Israel’s power supply system: according to the Ember research centre, they accounted for 66% of the country’s power output in 2021, with coal-fired and solar power plants responsible for 27% and 7% respectively. The prevalence of fossil fuels makes it easier to cover the peaks in energy demand, as the utilisation of gas-fired and coal-fired TPPs depends not on the weather but on the availability of feedstock and the dynamics of the ultimate power demand. It is no accident that the utilisation of coal-fired and gas-fired TPPs in the USA in 2022 was more than double that of solar panels (48% and 57% respectively against 25%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy).
Solovyov says that other potential consequences of extreme heat could include an increase in hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases, as well as a deterioration in air quality due to a rising number of forest and field fires. According to the KKL-JNF Fund, the last peak in forest fires took place in 2020 when the number of fires reached 1,020, with a total area of 150,000 acres (60,700 ha). The number of forest fires went down to 814 in 2021 and further down to 448 in 2022 with a total area of 46,000 acres (18,600 ha).
The expert believes that heat might also lead to an uptick in gasoline prices: aside from the spike in prices for electricity used in the manufacturing of petroleum products, a rise in demand for gasoline used in air-conditioned cars and increased fuel consumption for engine cooling will also make an impact. Moreover, heat could cause problems in oil refining and reductions in the production of petroleum products.
