The photo is sourced from thermofisher.com
The IEA’s forecast scenarios are based on differences in climate policy implementation. The first scenario (Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS) is based on the climate action programs that are already in effect; the second one (Announced Pledges Scenario, APS) assumes that the carbon neutrality targets announced by governments will be achieved in full and on time; finally, the third scenario (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario) is based on the assumption that the global energy sector will reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 thanks to, among other things, a complete switch from coal and gas in power generation.
“The net zero scenario doesn’t look very realistic,” says Igor Yushkov, lead expert of the National Energy Security Fund. “Developing economies will rely on conventional energy sources for decades from now. It is no coincidence that Pralhad Joshi, India’s Minister of Coal, stated last year that coal will play a major role in the country’s energy mix until at least 2040. And even if India stops building new coal-fired TPPs after 2040, coal will cover no less than a fourth of India’s electricity needs by 2050,” he notes.
According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the share of coal-fired power generation in India stood at 74% in 2021. Moreover, the country brought 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired TPPs into operation in 2022, which was second only to China (26.8 GW). Global Energy Monitor says that the overall share of China and India in the global capacity of newly-commissioned coal-fired power plants reached 67% last year.
The geography of gas-fired power generation is more dispersed: the share of China and India in the capacity of gas-fired TPPs newly commissioned worldwide was a mere 26% last year. Several more country groups have grown their generating capacities: resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa, such as Bahrain (1.5 GW), Iraq (1.9 GW), Algeria (1.9 GW) and Libya (0.5 GW); Southeast Asian countries experiencing explosive economic and population growth, including Bangladesh (1.2 GW) and Pakistan (1.3 GW); and developed economies of the OECD, including the USA (2.5 GW), South Korea (1 GW) and Germany (0.8 GW).
However, the IEA’s second scenario predicts that the global share of gas-fired power generation will stand at just 6% by 2050 (with coal-fired generation at 3%). “A key advantage of gas-fired power plants is the reduction of specific emissions and the reliability of energy supply, which doesn’t depend on the weather,” says Sergei Vorobyov, head of the Group of Experts and director of the Fuels and Energy Technology Development Institute. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), coal-fired power plants have an average emission rate of 820 grams of CO2-equivalent per 1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity, whereas gas-fired power plants’ emission rate is 490 g CO2-equivalent per 1 kWh. At the same time, gas-fired TPPs have a higher utilisation rate than renewables: for instance, the average utilisation rate of gas-fired TPPs in the USA reached 57% в 2022, whereas that of solar panels and wind generators was at 25% and 36% respectively.
“With these advantages, the share of gas-fired power plants in the global energy mix by 2050 will certainly exceed 10%. In addition, developed countries will need to compensate for the decommissioned generating capacities,” Vorobyov stresses. Australia, for example, plans to decommission 45 coal-fired power units with a total capacity of 21.1 GW in the period up to 2040, while the USA and Germany will decommission 195 power units totaling 110.2 GW and 57 power units totaling 25.6 GW respectively in the same period. “These capacities cannot be replaced without gas-fired TPPs. This is why, as opposed to coal-fired capacities, new gas-fired TPPs will be built not only by developing countries but also by developed ones. As a result, gas will retain its high rankings in the global energy sector by 2050,” Vorobyov concludes.
