The combination of these two trends – growth in the absolute volume of emissions and reduction in specific carbon intensity – is generally typical of the past two decades. While greenhouse gas emissions in the power industry grew by 78% in the period from 2000 through 2022, the average volume of emissions per 1 kWh of electricity fell by 6% (from 466 grams of CO2-equivalent per kWh to 436 grams of CO2-equivalent per kWh) in the same period.
The increase in emissions is largely caused by the rise in power consumption, which reached 90% in the period from 2000 through 2022. In absolute terms, it translates into 13,546 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is commensurate with the current annual demand for electricity in the Asia-Pacific region. A key factor here is rapid economic growth in Asian countries, which would have been impossible without new coal-fired TPPs providing access to reliable and clean energy. According to Global Energy Monitor, China and India accounted for 81% (1,221 gigawatts out of 1,500 gigawatts) of the capacity of coal-fired power plants put into operation worldwide in the period from 2000 through 2022.
The USA continued to drive power demand as well, with its electricity consumption rising by 13% (to 4,338 TWh) in the period from 2000 through 2022. In the course of that period, the United States was the world leader in terms of the construction pace of gas-fired power plants: the country brought into operation 179 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired TPPs (19% of the global capacity), while the runner-up, China, brought on stream 107 GW (11%) of gas-fired power plants. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions from gas-fired power generation in the USA skyrocketed from 301 mln t of CO2-equivalent in 2000 to 828 mln t in 2022.
In its turn, the aforementioned decline in carbon intensity is largely owing to changes in the global energy mix. While wind and solar accounted for just 0.2% of global power generation in 2000, their share made up precisely 12% in 2022. The overall share of low-carbon sources (including nuclear and hydro power plants, as well as generators powered by biomass and rare types of renewables) rose from 35.8% to 39.1% in that period, while the share of power plants based on fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil products) dropped from 64.2% to 60.9%.
The carbon intensity indicator is an estimate: according to Ember’s estimates, bituminous coal-fired power generation produces an average of 1,100 grams of CO2-equivalent in greenhouse gases, whereas power generation from gas and other fossil fuels results in 370 grams of CO2-equivalent and 700 grams of CO2-equivalent respectively. The lower the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix, the lower the emission rates. This is why the carbon intensity of the global energy industry has been declining since the beginning of this century, as observed by Ember.
