The share of these countries in the overall capacity of coal-fired TPPs under construction rose to 94.8% by July 2023, with South Africa responsible for another 0.8% (1.6 GW) and all other countries making up a mere 4.4% (9.1 GW). As a result, half of the top six was represented by major coal producers, such as China, which provided 49% of the global production of power-generating coal last year (3,561 million tons out of 7,221 million tons), as well as Indonesia and South Africa, which together accounted for 51% of the global exports of power-generating coal in 2022 (538 million tons out of 1,045 million tons as per the International Energy Agency (IEA)).
China plans to reduce its dependence on coal imports in the coming years. This is indirectly reflected in the dynamics of investments in coal mining: the total amount invested in coal mining in China rose from $55 billion in 2018 to $96 billion in 2022, and the IEA expects it to reach $105 billion by the end of 2023. At the same time, China is gradually cutting back investments in the construction of coal-fired TPPs: they are expected to go from $36 billion in 2018 to $19 billion in 2023. This is going to cause a slowdown in China’s coal imports, especially since China is a world leader in renewable energy: in 2022, the country accounted for 46% of the wind and solar generators brought into operation globally (123 GW out of 266 GW, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency).
In addition to the availability of domestic raw materials in the countries operating coal-fired TPPs, the slowdown in global coal trade will also be affected by a technological shift in coal-fired power generation. This shift is caused by the spread of so-called ultra-supercritical coal-fired TPPs, the efficiency of which ranges from 44% to 46% (the higher the efficiency, the less coal is required to generate a certain amount of electricity). By July 2023, ultra-supercritical coal-fired TPPs accounted for 20% of the coal-fired TPPs operating around the world and for 66% of those under construction. Meanwhile, these indicators for subcritical TPPs (with an efficiency ranging from 33% to 37%) stood at 53% and 4%, respectively, and at 27% and 30% for supercritical TPPs (with an efficiency of 37–40%). These changes will help reduce the environmental footprint of coal-fired power generation, but they will also cause additional risks for the world’s largest coal exporters.
