Commissioning new generating capacities became one of the drivers. According to EIA, the installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in the US in 2023 grew by 5.2 GW. Only the solar and wind generation demonstrated higher growth (22.4 GW and 8.1 GW respectively) within the unified grid, as well as the energy storage systems, the capacity of which has grown by 8.3 GW during the last year. However, judging by the actual generation growth, gas-fired power plants significantly outstripped the solar and wind generation, the total output of which grew “only” by 11.0 TW-h.
The continuing effort of abandoning the coal-fired generation also performed as a driver for the growing demand for gas: based on the results of 2023, the capacity of coal-fired power plants in the US decreased by 9.3 GW and achieved 178.6 GW, which is more than two times lower the similar indicator for gas-fired power plants (488.8 GW). Eventually, last year the total coal-fired generation in the USA decreased by 19% (i.e., by 134.2 TW-h), and its share in the generation mix – down to 16% (vs 20% in 2022).
The feedstock for the gas-fired power plants became cheaper, and that was another driver for the growth of output. The average price of gas at the Henry Hub (the key gas hub for the USA) in 2023 went down by 60% and became USD 91 per one thousand cubic meters (vs USD 228 in 2022). It resulted in the growth of the average load of steam-gas units (using steam-gas and gas-turbine engines) from 56.9% in the first 10 months of 2022 up to 59.1% YoY in 2023.
Other types of gas-fired power plants also demonstrated the growth, mainly during the periods of high demand for energy: for gas-turbine units where gaseous fuel combustion products are used to rotate the turbine the load grew from 13.1% up to 14.6% YoY. The load of steam turbines using steam generated from water heated with the fired gas as the working medium, grew from 16.0% up to18.0% respectively.
The gas-fired generation is likely to grow in the USA in the forthcoming two years, including due to the above-mentioned effort to abandon the coal-fired generation. According to the EIA forecast, the capacity of the coal-fired power plants in the USA by the end of 2025 will decrease by 12.4 GW vs the current level (i.e., down to 166.1 GW), while as the capacity of the gas-fired power plants will grow by 2.8 GW (i.e., down to 491.7 GW).
