Reliability VS cost
Nevertheless, offshore wind power plants are still behind the annual commissioning rate of onshore WPPs in Europe (3.8 GW and 14.5 GW in 2023 respectively). High capital intensity is one of the reasons: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average cost of commissioning of 1 KW of offshore wind power plants in the EU countries 2022 was 3,420 USD, while as the same metric for the onshore WPPs was 1,750 USD (there are no data for the more recent periods). However, offshore wind power plants feature more reliable power supply: the average annual capacity utilisation for onshore plant in Europe during the period of 2018-2023 was less than 25%, and for offshore plants was close to 35%.
This, in turn, will stimulate the development of the sub-industry: according to WindEurope forecast, commissioning of offshore WPPs in Europe by 2030 will achieve 31.4 GW capacity, which will exceed the same metric for onshore plants (27.6 GW). New technologies may be one of the drivers: in particular, WPPs of pyramid type. Contrary to the standard windmill type, these units have four connecting towers instead of one positioned on a pyramid base and holding blades on the top. Such design must provide for WPPs steadiness against the sea waves and hence – make their operation easier.
WPPs renewal
Gradual depreciation of wind power plants is another important trend. In 2023, the overall capacity of 20-year and longer life cycle WPPs in Europe was г 22 GW, and by 2030 their total capacity will reach 52 GW. This will require upgrade of wind power plants, i.e. installation of new units instead of the mature ones. This process is on-going already: according to WindEurope, 736 MW of wind power plants were decommissioned and 1.5 GW of WPPs were re-connected to the grid upon their upgrade in 2023; by 2030, it will be 5.2 GW and 5.0 GW respectively.
This will affect the overall structure of wind power plants: in 2023, the total capacity of European WPPs was 273 GW including 6 GW of the upgraded WPPs, and 267 GW of the capacities still not upgraded; by 2030, the installed capacity of this category of WPPs will reach 36 GW and 470 GW respectively. WPPs upgrade includes mostly installation of higher capacity turbines, which are becoming more and more common: the average capacity of onshore WPP in Europe grew from 2.5 MW in 2014 up to 4.5 MW in 2023, and of offshore WPP – from 3.8 MW up to 9.7 MW.
Northern European wind energy cluster
The development of the Northern European cluster of wind power generation in the North Sea is another important trend in the industry. The countries located in this area are leaders of wind power generation share in the energy mix: the average share for the European Union in 2023 was 19% of energy consumption, but in Denmark it was 56%, in Germany – 31%, in Great Britain – 29%, and in the Netherlands – 27%. Owing to the new project this share will be growing during the next years: e.g., 6.6 GW of off-shore wind power plants must be commissioned in Denmark before 2030, and their total capacity will reach 9.3 GW.
High concentration of offshore wind power plants will result in electricity surplus, which may be channeled to electrolysers for further producing hydrogen. In addition, upgrading of the existing pipelines in North-Western Europe will make it easier to transport H2.
