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Beyond India and China: new growth points on coal-fired power generation map

China and India remain the key drivers of global coal-fired power generation. According to Global Energy Monitor, the two countries accounted for 76% of the capacity of coal-fired TPPs launched worldwide in 2023 (52.9 out of 69.5 gigawatts, GW). Nevertheless, rising energy demand in developing countries leads to the emergence of new growth points on the global map of coal-fired power generation.

03.05.2024
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Beyond India and China: new growth points on coal-fired power generation map
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Among them is Indonesia, which has historically been a large exporter of power-generating coal, but has been expanding its domestic demand for solid fuel in recent years. In the period from 2015 to 2023, Indonesia launched 28.5 GW of coal-fired TPPs, as a result of which the installed capacity of local coal-fired power plants more than doubled, reaching 51.6 GW. Thanks to its large coal reserves, Indonesia’s power industry mainly uses domestic feedstock, the quality of which is relatively low, i.e., it is characterised by high water content and low calorific value. This leads to high fuel consumption and CO2 emissions: the Energy Institute estimates that greenhouse gas emissions from Indonesia’s power sector added almost 50% between 2015 and 2022, reaching 692 million tons of CO2 equivalent, more than double the volume of CO2 emissions from the combustion of associated petroleum gas (APG).

Also among the fast-growing coal markets is Pakistan, which brought 7.6 GW of coal-fired TPPs into operation in the period from 2015 to 2023. As a result, the share of coal in the national energy mix grew from 0.1% in 2015 to 17.8% in 2022 (no later data are available). Pakistan uses both domestic and imported feedstock in its power sector. The production of all types of coal in Pakistan increased from 3.3 million tons in 2015 to 9.9 million tons in 2022, with imports (excluding brown coal) rising from 4.7 million to 14.3 million tons, respectively. In turn, Bangladesh launched 4.5 GW of coal-fired TPPs in the period from 2018 to 2023, surpassing the capacities launched in the previous 15 years. As a result, the share of coal in the country’s energy mix rose from 1.9% in 2018 to 5.6% in 2022. However, gas remains the key source of electricity for Bangladesh: it accounted for 67.8% of the domestic power output in 2022.

Central Asia is also a growth point for the industry. By early 2024, the aggregate capacity of planned Central Asian coal-fired power plants that are not yet under construction (8.3 GW) was more than double the level of 2014 (just under 4 GW). This is also caused by growing energy demand: according to Ember, power consumption increased by 21% in the period from 2014 to 2022 (up to 113 terawatt-hours) in Kazakhstan, and by 43% (up to 78 terawatt-hours) in Uzbekistan.

Tags: AsiaBangladeshChinaCoalElectricityGasIndiaIndonesiaKazakhstanOperationPakistanPower generationPower plants

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