The apparent front-runner of the market is lithium: according to IEA conservative scenario based on analysing the already existing trends and statutory norms (Stated Policy Scenario), the global demand for this metal in power industry and transportation will grow more than four times during the period from 2023 to 2030 – from 92 ktpa up to 382 ktpa respectively. One of the drivers is energy storage: for example, in the USA between January 2023 and April 2024 the storage capacities commissioning achieved 11.1 GW – this is the second highest figure among all electricity infrastructure sites including solar panels (31.6 GW) and wind-powered generators (9.6 GW).
The growth of demand for cathode materials will ensure more than three-fold growth of the global consumption of nickel and cobalt in power industry and transportation: nickel consumption in these sectors will grow more than three times between 2023 and 2030 (from 465 ktpa up to 1,581 ktpa), and cobalt consumption will more than double (from 64.3 ktpa up to 154.8 ktpa). As for copper, its consumption in power industry during the same period will grow by 50% (from 4.1 mtpa up to 6.1 mtpa): retrofit of the existing energy transmission lines and construction of the new ones will be playing a crucial role here, as it is necessary in the environment of mass-scale introduction of RES and the growing load on the energy infrastructure.
The growth of demand for non-ferrous metals creates new opportunities for the developing economies dominating in the value chain of lithium-ion batteries manufacturing. For example, China is the major processor of lithium and cobalt; Indonesia is the leading global nickel producer and processor; the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the key cobalt producer; and Chilie is the second biggest lithium processor. At the same time, non-ferrous metals are the most expensive components of energy storage facilities: the average cost of lithium-ion batteries decreased from USD 800 per 1 KW-h of capacity in 2013 down to USD 140 per 1 KW-h in 2023, but the share of lithium, nickel and cobalt in their production costs grew from 5% up to 25%.
