Apart from India, the BRICS founding members included Brazil, China and Russia, which play an important role in hydrocarbon markets. Russia, as the world leader in gas reserves and one of the world’s top three oil producers (along with the United States and Saudi Arabia); China as one of the largest oil consumers and a fast-growing gas producer; and Brazil as the leader in oil production among the South American countries.
Oil production in Brazil grew by 12.5% to 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, and Brazil’s global supply share rose from 3.3% to 3.6%, respectively, according to the Energy Institute. The growth driver is the development of subsalt fields on the Atlantic shelf, which is carried out using floating production, storage and offloading units (FPSO). According to Rystad Energy’s forecast, Brazil would account for a quarter of global orders for construction of FPSO vessels in the period up to 2030. In its turn, Russia will increase oil production due to softening of the OPEC+ deal. According to the alliance’s latest agreements, Russia’s quota will increase from the current 8.98 mln bpd to 9.45 mln bpd at the end of 2025.
China has been rapidly increasing its gas production in recent years: its volume almost doubled (from 121.8 bcm to 234.3 bcm) between 2013 and 2023. One of the growth drivers was the development of unconventional reserves in Sichuan province, where shale gas production increased from 20 million to 25.7 billion cubic meters over the same period. Natural gas is becoming increasingly in demand in the Chinese electric power industry: according to the Global Energy Monitor, 96 GW of gas-fired thermal power plant capacity were commissioned in China in 2013-2023 and as a result, the gas generation volume during this period increased by an average of 9.9% per year. Another demand driver in the PRC is the residential sector where gas consumption grew from 37 bcm in 2014 to 95 bcm in 2023, driven by urbanization and construction of gas transmission networks.
Turkey also has a potential for gas production increase, having started development of the Sakarya field on the Black Sea continental shelf. Gas reserves at this field amount to more than 500 billion cubic meters of gas, and actual production has already exceeded 5.5 million cubic meters per day. The gas production volume in the second half of the 2020s must reach 40 million cubic meters per day (almost 15 billion cubic meters per year), which will make possible, among other things, reduction of its dependence on imports.
The UAE plans to increase oil production capacity from the current 4.0 million bpd to 5.0 million bpd by 2027, while the country is actively diversifying its energy mix. In 2024, the last of the four units of the Baraka nuclear power plant was commissioned, which is expected to supply a quarter of the country’s electricity needs. Low-carbon energy is also being developed in Egypt, where El Dabaa, the country’s first nuclear power plant is under construction.
