The boost in demand for lithium in power generation and transportation has led to booming in new mining projects. According to the Energy Institute, the volume of lithium production within 2021-2023 increased by 80%. In absolute terms, this increase amounted to 90.1 thousand tons per year, of which 78 thousand tons accounted for only three countries – China, Chile and Australia. Along with growing interest in the industry, the estimation of raw material reserves has also changed. In 2019, the US Geological Survey estimated the world economically recoverable lithium reserves at 17 million tons, while at the end of 2023 the estimate raised to 28 million tons per year. At the same time, the geological reserve estimate for the same period increased from 80 million to 105 million tons, of which Bolivia accounted for 23 million tons at the end of 2023.
In the coming years, the key trends in the industry will be diversification of the geography and production methods. According to Infomain’s forecast, South America will account for 42% of the global lithium production growth through 2030, North America – for 24%, Europe – for 14%, and Africa – for 12%, while Australia will account for only 8%. By comparison, Australia accounted for 24% of the global lithium production in 2023. Solid rock will account for “only” 39% of the global production growth, while brines will account for 46%, and another 15% will be accounted for by rare mining methods, including lithium extraction from clay and groundwater.
Electric transportation still remains the industry’s growth driver. According to the IEA’s baseline forecast based on the analysis of the available trends (Stated Policies Scenario), global sales of new electric cars and plug-in hybrids will increase from 13.8 million units in 2023 to 40.7 million in 2030, and their share in new passenger car sales will rise from 3.2% to 16%. Energy storage will continue to be another growth driver. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. electric power industry added 20.2 GW of storage capacity in the first half of 2024, up 20% from the first half of 2023.
