The situation is also affected by non-fuel factors, including the slowdown in the Chinese economy. According to the October forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China’s GDP growth is expected to drop from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.8% by the end of 2024 and further to 4.5% in 2025. As a point of comparison, the annual growth rate of the Chinese economy averaged 6.7% between 2015 and 2019.
Another factor is the stability of the Chinese population: the World Bank estimates that 1,411 million people lived in China in 2023, exactly the same figure as in 2020. This affects the dynamics of light-duty vehicle transportation: suppliers of internal combustion engines and electric vehicles are competing for a share of the stagnating market, which is why the growing sales of electric cars and hybrids are causing a noticeable reduction in demand for motor gasoline.
China is among the world leaders in the rate of adoption of electric vehicles. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China accounted for almost 60% of global sales of electric cars and plug-in hybrids (8.1 million out of 13.8 million units), as well as 55% of the global electric vehicle fleet (21.8 million out of 40 million) in 2023. Kept estimates that the world’s ten largest electric vehicle manufacturers included five Chinese companies (BYD, Geely Auto, SAIC, GAC and Changan) last year. The key to competitiveness is the development of in-house solutions for energy accumulation and storage, which allow Chinese companies to outpace European and American manufacturers with a rich history of traditional automaking.
This is greatly aided by the high availability of raw materials used in the production of batteries for electric vehicles. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), China accounted for 72% and 15% of the global production of natural graphite (the main raw material for anode materials) and lithium (material for cathodes), respectively, in 2022.
