According to the EIA forecast, crude oil production in the USA by the end of 2024 will make 13.2 mbpd, and in 2025 – 13.5 mbpd (vs 12.9 mbpd in 2023). The main driver of this growth is quite comfortable level of prices, overlapping the costs of the shale producers. According to Rystad Energy, the breakeven point for producing shale oil from the yet undeveloped zones of the oilfields in the USA is USD 45 per bbl, while as the average spot price of WTI at the end of the first ten months of 2024 reached USD 77.9 per bbl. According to the EIA forecast next year the average price of WTI will make USD 71.6 per bbl.
The export dynamics will depend not only on the produced volumes, but also on the availability of export terminals, where it will be possible to load oil on the super tankers. The majority of terminals operating in the USA may serve AFRAMAX tankers (with deadweight between 80 and 120 kt) and SUEZMAX tankers (circa 160 kt), and only few can be used for VLCC tankers (between 160 and 320 kt). The very first such terminal was commissioned in 2018 at the deep-water port of Louisiana. In 2024 the US Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued a license for SPOT terminal with 2 mbpd throughput capacity, which is planned for commissioning in 2027 in the Mexican Gulf.
Currently the regulator is reviewing three similar projects, and in case of their approval, they will be also built in the Mexican Gulf: Blue Marlin (1.9 mbpd), Bluewater (1.9 mbpd) and GulfLink (1 mbpd). In this case the USA will be able to claim the status of the second biggest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia, which in 2023 supplied 7.0 mbpd of oil to the global market.
Other countries of North and South America in addition to the USA also have the potential to grow their production and export. Canada is one of them, this year it completed the upgrade of the TMPL pipeline designed to deliver oil to the ports on the Western shore: its throughput capacity grew from 300 to 890 kbpd; Guyana and Brazil are planning to increase their supplies due to commissioning new floating oil production, storage and offloading systems (FPSO); and Argentine, where the main potential for increasing crude oil production is associated with developing Vaca Muerta shale formation.
