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China tripling solar panel commissioning

China’s solar panel commissioning rate has accelerated threefold: the country put into operation 103 gigawatts (GW) of photovoltaic capacity in 2022 and 260 GW in 2023. According to Ember’s forecast, the 2024 figure will amount to 334 GW. The share of solar generation, which rose from 4.8% in 2022 to 6.2% in 2023, will go beyond 8% this year.

07.12.2024
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China tripling solar panel commissioning
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The increasing demand for solar panels is mainly the result of diminishing costs. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reports the world’s average solar panel commissioning cost to have dropped 86% between  2010 and 2023 (from $5,310 to $758 per kW), while the Levelized Cost of Electricity was cut to less than one tenth (from $0.460 to $0.044 per kWh).

Another advantage of solar panels is their usability as an independent source of power in the industry and services sectors as well as by households. For instance, as of October, 2024 autonomous power consumers in the United States accounted for more than 30% of the nation’s total installed photovoltaic capacity (53 GW out of 169 GW), in particular due to preferential taxation. Last year the US Congress extended through 2032 the federal program that offers an income tax deduction of 30% of solar panel installation and assembly costs. This policy is also applied in China: in 2021 independent power supply facilities accounted for 53% and in 2022, for 58% of the country’s new photovoltaic installations.

In fact, there is no viable alternative for solar panels in the stand-alone generation market. Wind power plants have only recently come into use in the residential sector. Those are the so called bladeless wind turbines, of two main types. The first is the vortex wind power unit with its bottom part fixed on the ground and the upper part oscillating under wind; the second type has a tube with propeller installed between two vertical walls: this design creates a low air pressure area which catches the wind and propels the generator.

However neither of the two options has any competitive advantage over solar panels, not in the least because of the developing countries’ significant share in their production. This is confirmed incidentally by the recent US decision to impose prohibitive import duties on panels from South-East Asia starting next year: the tariff will be set at 21.3% for Malaysia, 77.9% for Thailand, 125.4% for Cambodia, and 271.3% for Vietnam. According to customs statistics sources, those countries supplied 80% of solar panels imported to the US in 2023, with the total value around $15 bn.

Recently import tariffs were raised for China, which possesses a wealth of mineral resources for solar generation: in 2022 China accounted for 9% of silicon metal and 69% of ferrosilicon (alloy of iron and silicon with a silicon content of 10% to 90%) produced globally, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports.

Tags: AsiaChinaElectricityMalaysiaPower plantsPressureRenewable EnergySiliconSolarThailandVietnamWind

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