The capacity of Indian enterprises significantly exceeds the needs of the domestic market. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in 2023, 9.7 GW of solar panels were commissioned in India, and their total installed capacity reached 72.8 GW. Therefore, Indian manufacturers are trying to ensure capacity utilization by entering foreign markets. India’s solar panel exports tripled to 5.8 GW in FY2024 (April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024), according to customs statistics. Export revenue increased from $1 billion to $2 billion, of which 99% came from supplies to the United States.
Such data is not accidental: for the United States, imports from India are an alternative to supplies from China, which is subject to trade restrictions. In 2022, the US banned imports of photovoltaic panels from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and in 2024, the tariff on solar panel imports from China to the US was increased from 25% to 50%. Due to trade barriers, Chinese companies began to transfer production to Southeast Asian countries, but the latter were hit by a barrage of bans. In November 2024, the US Department of Commerce announced high import tariffs on solar cells and modules from Malaysia (21.3%), Thailand (77.9%), Cambodia (125.4%) and Vietnam (271.3%).
This provides additional opportunities for Indian companies including Waaree, Adani and Vikram Solar: their total production line capacity at the end of fiscal year 2024 reached nearly 20 GW per annum, and the export share of solar panel production was 53%, 68% and 54%, respectively (data from JMK Research). The increase in supplies to the United States will be facilitated by growth in final demand. In the first 11 months of 2024, 35 GW of solar panels were installed in the US, an 80% increase over the twelve months of 2021 (19.2 GW).
This trend is also true for the world as a whole: according to Ember, global solar panel installations increased from 186 GW in 2021 to 459 GW in 2023 and reached 593 GW at the end of 2024. Therefore, India will increase the export of solar panels not only to the USA, but also to South Africa, the UAE, Bangladesh and some other countries, which so far account for only 1% of exports (in value terms). In addition, the demand for solar panels will increase in India itself, given that the country’s authorities plan to increase the installed renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 (versus 176 GW in 2023).
