One of the reasons for the imports increase was a gradual return of prices to a multi-year norm. The average price of thermal coal in Australia’s Newcastle, the largest Asia-Pacific (APAC) hub was $136 per ton, while it was $106 per ton in the South African port of Richards Bay. In both cases, this is more than two times lower than in 2022, i.e. at the energy crisis peak when the average price in Newcastle reached $345 per ton and $241 per ton in the Richards Bay hub. The market completely recovered from the 2021-2022 supply shock associated with the EU embargo on Russia as well as the restrictions on Australian coal imports to the PRC.
In 2024, China increased its steam coal imports by 10.4% (to 408 million tons) and coking coal – by 7% (119 million tons). On the one hand, it was an effect from the policy of a constant increase in the commercial reserves of coal which China followed after 2021 when Chinese power plants had to face solid fuel shortage amid recovery of the demand for energy growth. According to the IEA, China’s commercial coal reserves exceeded 350 million tons by August 2024, whereas the year before they were just over 300 million tons. On the other hand, it is high availability of coking coal imports from neighboring Mongolia where a railway line from the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit to the border with China was put into operation in 2022. According to the IEA, in 2024 Mongolia increased by 22% (up to 66 million tons) coking coal supplies to China.
In 2024, India increased its total imports of steam and coking coal by 1.1% (up to 250 million tons), also due to the development of coal-fired generation. According to the Global Energy Monitor, 2.8 GW of coal-fired thermal power plant capacity were commissioned in the country during the first half of 2024, which is the second largest figure in the world after China (8.6 GW). In the coming years, India will remain a world leader in the growth rate of the demand for coking coal used for steel production. By April 2024, India’s total carbon-intensive steelmaking capacity was 72 million tons per year, with 24.4 million tons per year in the construction phase and 152.7 million tons per year – in the planning phase.
Despite its ambitious plans on development of renewable energy sources, Vietnam still remains a growing coal importer. As the IEA estimates, Vietnam will increase its thermal coal purchases by 18% in 2024 to compensate for the reduction in hydropower generation. In the second half of the 2020s, Vietnam will start a conveyor belt import of coal from Laos; the belt will be 6 km long and have a capacity of at least 15 million tons per year.
According to the IEA forecast, the global coal trade will grow until 2027, then it “will reach a plateau” – due to increased coal production in China and introduction of low-carbon technologies in power generation and metallurgy.
