The North African desert of Sahara, the largest hot desert in the world at 8.6 million square kilometers, is gradually becoming one of the chief factors affecting the situation in Europe’s energy market.
The fact of the matter is that the Sahara is the main source of dense atmospheric dust in Southern and Central Europe, which consists of sand particles of various shapes and weights. Clouds with Sahel dust can concentrate at a higher altitude and get actively carried by winds over long distances, causing dust storms in Europe. As a result, Saharan dust settles on solar panels in a thin dense layer, sharply reducing their power output.
A study by a group of authors from Hungary’s Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences devoted to the impact of Saharan dust storms on the accuracy of solar power production forecasts in Central Europe has shown that air dustiness in Europe has become increasingly intense and frequent in recent decades as climate change alters air mass flows over North Africa. Over the past 10 years, the number of dust storms has risen to 218 in Hungary alone.
This is already becoming a major problem for Europe’s energy market. According to Ember, the share of solar power plants in Europe’s total power output reached 11% by the end of 2024, totaling 304 TWh. The construction of solar power plants in Europe is only going to increase in the future. This is why even moderate southern winds will be enough for days-long spikes in electricity prices in the European market.
For instance, Bloomberg reports that in mid-April this year, when winds from North Africa blew in Central and Southern Europe, causing severe dustiness in the lower layers of the atmosphere, solar power production in Germany fell from 36 GW to 17 GW in two days.
The researchers from the Budapest-based Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences believe that dust storms recurring in Hungary several times a year from 2022 to 2024 led to a short-term drop of 1–2 GW in domestic power generation. In 2022, big fluctuations in power output forced the Hungarian Ministry for Innovation and Technology to fine energy companies a total of EUR 372 million.
Bloomberg quotes meteorologist Matthew Dobson from MetDesk as saying that these dusty winds could cause solar power production to fall by 10–20% in the affected areas.
Another problem with dust clouds from the Sahara is the complexity of forecasting. The Hungarian researchers note that meteorological services are not currently tracking the movements of high air masses containing large amounts of dust in real time, which affects short-term and medium-term weather forecasts (15 minutes to 24 hours). “The effects of Saharan dust can be enormous. In some years, up to 8 gigawatts less solar power than predicted was generated in Germany in one day,” Amani Joas, head of FlexPower, is quoted as saying by Bloomberg.
The complexity of forecasting leads to sharp market fluctuations in electricity prices and the need for additional investment in energy storage systems.
