A group of researchers from National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology and from Vietnamese Hong Bang International University and Industrial University of Ho Chi Minh City developed a comprehensive methodology for selecting the best locations for building wind farms in Indonesia. This country featuring extended coast line, uneven distribution of energy resources and ambitious decarbonization targets has significant wind potential. However, to assure its maximum efficient use, the selection of locations for generation should be very thorough and carefully weighted.
The researchers proposed two-stage approach combining objective data analysis with opinions and assessments by specialists. At first, they applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to identify, which Indonesian provinces out of 33 in total demonstrated the best results for a series of numerical indicators. They were: the cost of land, frequency of natural calamities, wind intensity, suitability of geological conditions and population size. A list of 11 high-potential regions was formed based on analyzing such data. It included, among others, Aceh, Jakarta, Western and Central Java, Lampung, Riau and Papua.
Then fuzzy logic methods were applied to these regions. First, FAHP (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process) methods were used to define the value of 15 qualitative criteria grouped into four categories: technical, economic, social and environmental. The following parameters turned out the most important: access to electricity grids, public relations, skilled workforce availability, proximity to residential areas, statutory restrictions and potential impact on nature and landscape. The weight of each criterion was calculated based on the survey among ten independent experts — specialists in logistics, engineering, ecology, law and sustainable development. The following factors were recognized as the most meaningful: access to electricity grids, visual environmental impact and land use simplicity from the legal standpoint.
F-CoCoSo method was applied at the final stage. This instrument allows for streamlining the options by their preferability combining different assessment methods (additive and multiplicative). Based on the normalized values of all the criteria and their weights, each of the 11 shortlisted provinces received a final score.
Eventually, Lampung province got the first position — it demonstrated the best balance of the technical, economic, social and environmental factors. Aceh and Riau were the second and the third respectively. These regions featured not only high wind activity, but also affordable land, well-developed infrastructure, positive attitude on behalf of the locals and low environmental risks. Papua and Western Java turned out less suitable despite of their certain advantages — the probability of natural calamities was higher in these provinces; there were more restrictions for connecting to the electricity grids and the social support of projects was low.
The researchers are sure that the new methodology may become and efficient instrument for spatial [planning both at the level of national and regional governments and for private investors. Thanks to its transparency and the capability for accounting for numerous factors simultaneously, it helps not only to minimize the risks, but also to improve the efficiency of developing the wind potential. The researchers also plan to adapt this system for other areas, e.g., for assessing the potential sites for solar, geo-thermal or hybrid power plants.
