Researchers from the University of Idaho have estimated the possibility of building a global energy system of the future using batteries based on lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO₄). As part of the study, they calculated how much lithium would be needed to support a fully decarbonized energy grid by 2050 and whether this resource would be sufficient. Their conclusions are encouraging: there is enough lithium, the costs are comparable to those of other major infrastructure projects, and the environmental and social risks are much lower than with other battery technologies.
The transition to renewable sources requires sustainable storage systems: solar and wind are unstable, and electricity is needed around the clock. The issue of storage is especially relevant with regards to projected consumption growth: by 2050, global energy demand could reach 77,000–89,000 TWh per year, including due to full electrification of transport.
The scientists propose a scenario in which fossil fuels are completely replaced by solar and wind generation, whereas the capacity of nuclear and hydroelectric power plants remains at the current level.
They estimate that such a grid would require 22.2–25.7 TWh of energy storage to achieve stability. This is equivalent to the construction of 2.22–2.57 million power units with a capacity of 10 MWh each, following the example of a real operating plant in the Chinese province of Guizhou. One such unit requires about 1.94 tons of lithium, and 4.31 to 4.99 million tons on a system-wide scale. Taking into account the transport sector (another 1.45 million tons), total demand for lithium is not going to exceed 6.44 million tons.
According to the United States Geological Survey, the world’s lithium reserves total 26 million tons. Therefore, even with accelerated economic growth, only 22–25% of the existing volume will be required, with a large reserve available for additional needs. Taking into account new deposits, processing technologies and the development of the recycling system, these reserves will only grow.
The main advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries is that they make the use of scarce and expensive metals such as cobalt and manganese completely unnecessary. Instead, iron and phosphorus – inexpensive, environmentally friendly and widespread elements available in most countries – are used.
This advantage is also evident in terms of total costs. The processing of the required volume of lithium will require 580–670 TWh of energy, or less than 3% of global consumption in 2019. The total cost of the storage system is estimated at USD 15–17 trillion. The service life of batteries can reach 41 years with one charge-discharge cycle per day, which is comparable to, or even higher than, most industrial facilities.
The researchers also highlighted environmental risks. Lithium production requires a significant amount of fresh water, about 166 cubic meters per ton. This could be a problem in regions with limited water resources, although these risks could be managed with technological development and sound policy.
Overall, the study confirms that the lithium iron phosphate battery technology is well-suited to a zero-emission global energy system. Lithium will not become a limiting factor even with active growth, and further improvement of storage and generation technologies will only make it easier to achieve this.
