Researchers from Rochester Technology Institute together with their colleagues from the Technology Institute of Georgia for the first time performed a comprehensive study showing how the e-commerce growth impacts the energy consumption profile for retail premises in the USA. Instead of traditional sales analysis they linked the need for shops with the time people effectively spend in the shops, and explored how the decrease of this time leads to decrease in the area and to reduction of the demand for energy.
Over the last two decades, e-shopping from an auxiliary option turned into a sound substitute for physical visits to the shops. In late 1990-s Americans spent about 12 hours per month on shopping, and today about seven hours are enough, though the amount of the purchased goods did not change. Such gap is explained by the growth of e-commerce efficiency: it takes less and less time for the user to choose an item, to compare different options and to finalize the purchase. These time savings became the key for building a model.
Based on the data of the American Time Use Survey, the researchers restored the purchasing behavior in 2003-2023: how much time the US citizens spent in the shops and to make e-shopping. Then they compared such behavior patterns with the areas of retail shops using CoStar and CBECS databases. It turned out that changes in the need for commercial space follow the changes in behavior patterns with a lag of about five years – the effective lease period of a standard retailer. It means that business does not respond immediately, but the response is inevitable: customers spend less time in the shops – in five years there is less commercial space in use. This five-year inertial resistance became the basis for the predictive model.
The researchers explored two options. The first one is more conservative; it stipulates moderate future e-commerce – just like in 2003-2023. The second option is based on the facilitation observed starting from 2015, when the boom in e-commerce started. In both cases the outcome is the same: by 2030, Americans will be spending significantly less time in the shops. About five hours per month under the conservative scenario, and about two hours per month in the facilitated one. Such shrinking customers traffic leads to decrease in the demand for commercial space: about 10% less vs 2018 under the conservative scenario, and about 18% – in the facilitated one.
In terms of energy consumption, this means noticeable decrease of the load on commercial sector – up to 2.2% of its current energy consumption, which is dramatic for the industry, where the changes are traditionally slow.
At the same time, the research pertains only to retail premises and does not take into account the entire complex of digital economy effects: simultaneously with the reduction of retail premises, we can observe the growth of warehouse logistics, deliveries, server infrastructure and packaging. Nevertheless, even in such a narrow segment the customers behavioral changes turned out to be so strong, that they influence the energy balance of the entire industry.
The researchers urge municipal authorities and developers to be pro-active and to get ready for further reduction of physical retail. The empty premises will need conversion into service centers, residential premises or mixed spaces. And if the current trends persist, these conversion solutions will have to be proposed much quicker, than it seemed just recently.
