Scientists from the University of O’Higgins in Chile have analyzed temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere from 1880 to the present day and their relationship to carbon dioxide emissions. For that purpose, they used NASA archives and data from Mauna Loa Observatory, which has recorded CO₂ levels with high accuracy for over six decades. This allowed them to not only detect isolated climate anomalies, but also build a holistic picture of changes, from the accelerated melting of Antarctica’s glaciers to increasing numbers of forest fires in the arid regions of South America.
As a result, the researchers found confirmation that the Southern Hemisphere is steadily warming, and this process is accelerating. By loading temperature series into the Stata software package, they demonstrated that temperatures began rising noticeably in the 1970s and 1980s, after which the trend stabilized to form part of the new climate normal. Summer temperatures are rising especially quickly: seasonal temperature peaks on the graphs are becoming steeper, significantly exceeding annual averages. During these periods, heat waves become extreme, leading to rapid increases in destructive fires, overheating in urban areas and intensifying droughts, which are already affecting agriculture, water resources and human health. The example of Chile, where global warming coupled with the ENSO climate oscillation has caused record temperatures and massive fires, clearly demonstrates that these risks are real.
This temperature rise is completely consistent with another key trend: an unprecedented increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Since the 1960s, CO₂ levels have risen from roughly 315 ppm to nearly 420 ppm, and the pace of this increase is steadily accelerating. While the characteristic sawtooth curve built by the scientists clearly shows seasonal fluctuations related to vegetation respiration, the overall trend remains strictly upward. It has been a long time since humanity passed the 350 ppm threshold, which many climate scientists had considered relatively safe for the Earth. Today, concentrations are approaching 450 ppm, a level beyond which the likelihood of irreversible climate change increases sharply.
These carbon dioxide dynamics also give an accurate explanation of temperature trends: the higher the CO₂ concentration, the stronger the greenhouse effect and the less heat the Earth releases into space. This is consistent with atmospheric physics and is confirmed by statistical data. Major changes are also being observed in the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere: the Southern Ocean, which plays a vital role in heat distribution across the planet, is warming faster than expected, and the melting of Antarctic glaciers is intensifying, affecting sea levels and global circulation.
The consequences of these processes extend far beyond meteorology. Ecosystems are changing, the established water balance is being disrupted, and the risk of climate migration is increasing. The most telling example is Cape Town, which found itself on the brink of zero day during the severe drought of 2015–2018, when there was next to no water left in its reservoirs. The city was forced to sharply reduce its consumption standards, raise water rates, invest in alternative water sources and even launch programs to remove invasive plants that absorbed too much moisture. Although these measures prevented a complete collapse, they showed how vulnerable even large and developed cities can be in the face of climate change.
CO₂ concentrations and temperatures are rising in tandem, increasing pressure on ecosystems, economies and life-support systems. Climate benchmarks that cities, agriculture and infrastructure used to rely upon are rapidly losing their relevance. This study shows clearly that climate is no longer changing gradually: it is entering a phase of accelerated and increasingly unpredictable shifts. In these conditions, the key is not responding to crises that have already occurred, but rather the ability to proactively adapt to new realities where extreme heat, water shortages and climate risks are no longer the exception but are increasingly part of everyday life.
