By 2030, global CO₂ capture could reach about 1 billion tons per year as opposed to at least 1.67 billion tons required to meet climate goals. This means that emissions will exceed the target by almost one-third even in a favorable scenario. Such was the conclusion reached by scientists from Inner Mongolia University, Beijing Wuzi University and the Administrative Center for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and Technology, based on the analysis of the dynamics of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies.
CCUS technologies are considered a key tool of the energy transition, as they make it possible to reduce emissions without completely phasing out fossil fuels. However, their actual contribution to decarbonization remains negligible: total capture capacity is at about 170 million tons of CO₂ per year, whereas global emissions exceed 37 billion tons. Aiming to understand the reasons for this disparity, the researchers analyzed data from 21 countries for the past ten years, using machine-learning methods to highlight three key factors: government support, technological development level and economic efficiency.
Process economics remain a major factor, albeit not the critical one. The capture stage accounts for 60–80% of costs in the CCUS chain. However, contrary to expectations, the average cost of projects at the current stage is not going down as their scale increases, even rising in some cases due to more complex technologies being used, such as CO₂ capture from air or low-concentration sources.
The global development of CCUS technologies has been highly uneven. CCUS facilities are mostly concentrated in North America, while many countries in the rest of the world are in the early stages or limiting themselves to pilot projects. The Gini coefficient, which represents inequality in terms of CO₂ capture scale, remains stable at the level of 0.7–0.84, indicating that capacities are highly concentrated in a small number of countries. Technological inequality is only increasing: patents and key solutions are based in the United States, China, Norway and the United Kingdom. Other nations are forced to either purchase CCUS technologies or use open-source solutions, which prevents them from developing their own competitive advantages. At the same time, even this technology transfer does not enable a full transfer of implementation practices: nations are not proactive in adopting successful development models.
Geographical analysis has shown another aspect of the situation: instead of forming stable growth centers, CCUS projects are increasingly dispersing across the globe. The value of Moran’s I, a measure of spatial autocorrelation, is now negative. This means that the propagation effect remains limited despite a few successful projects.
The researchers have identified three development models. The first one is a coordination model, which combines strong policies, advanced technologies and significant scale. Examples include the United States, China and Norway. The second one is a single-axis model, which relies primarily on government support and institutional mechanisms with a smaller technological base. The best example is the United Kingdom. The third one is a limited model, which is subdivided into several types, including the Persian Gulf countries and Australia, where projects are often tied to the oil-and-gas sector and do not entail the development of the domestic technological ecosystem, as well as Canada and Japan, where CCUS development is supported by policy, but the technological base remains modest.
The researchers built so-called counterfactual scenarios, or development scenarios assuming that each of the three factors were strengthened individually or simultaneously. Their calculations show that the greatest impact comes from technological progress: it can increase the growth rate of CO₂ capture capacity by about 17.7%. The contribution of policy and cost reduction is much lower at about 5–6%. At the same time, countries with a low base demonstrate higher returns from improvements: for instance, they get a 22.3% increase from technological growth compared to 14.5% for developed countries, which indicates major untapped potential.
In the most favorable scenario, which envisions stronger policies and accelerated technological development with simultaneous cost reduction, global capture capacity could reach about 1 billion tons per year by 2030, approximately double the current projections. However, even that will not be enough: a shortage of some 530 million tons needs to be closed in order to reach the target level of 1.67 billion tons.
In this regard, the researchers emphasize the need to strengthen international cooperation, including technology transfer, experience sharing and the development of joint infrastructure. Cluster solutions wherein several companies share CO₂ transportation and storage systems could play an important role here. Successful examples include Norway’s Northern Lights, U.S. hubs like Bayou Bend and British industrial clusters.
