As hydrogen energy develops, the world may face a problem familiar to the oil market since the of the 1970s crises, which is dependence on a limited number of suppliers of critical raw materials. This is the conclusion drawn by the scientists from the University of Bordeaux in France and Kyoto University in Japan.
Today, more than 99% of the world’s hydrogen is produced from natural gas, coal, and petroleum products. However, most national hydrogen strategies envision a gradual transition to water electrolysis using electricity from solar and wind power plants. This requires electrolyzers, which means nickel, cobalt, platinum, rare earth elements, niobium, and other metals whose mining and processing are often concentrated in a small number of countries.
The researchers analyzed the feedstock supply risks for five main types of electrolyzers: alkaline water electrolyzers (AWE), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers, solid oxide electrolyzer cells (SOEC), anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolyzers, protonic ceramic electrolysis cells (PCCEL). The analysis was made for five major players in the emerging hydrogen economy: Australia, China, the European Union, Japan, and the United States.
The researchers made an index-based assessment taking into account the concentration of production of each raw material and political stability of the supplier countries. The index was calculated on a scale from 0 to 1, where 0 represents no threat to supply and 1 represents the highest risk.
The results revealed that for many metals, supply disruption probabilities are significantly higher than for traditional energy sources. While the index value for oil, natural gas, and thermal coal typically does not exceed 0.15, for some metals it reaches 0.5 or more.
The most problematic raw materials were niobium, cobalt, platinum, and rare earth elements. More than 80% of the global niobium production is concentrated in Brazil, over 70% of cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo, approximately 70% of platinum is produced in South Africa, and China controls the majority of the world rare earth element processing capacity.
The need for critical metals depends on the electrolyzer design. Alkaline electrolyzers currently accounting for the market majority, primarily use nickel and iron. PEM electrolyzers, on the other hand, require platinum and iridium, while SOEC systems require rare earth elements, cobalt, and niobium. The more complex and technologically advanced the electrolyzer is, the more often it uses materials whose production is concentrated in a limited number of countries.
Availability of domestic resources largely determines the differences among the countries. Therefore, the most stable position belongs to Australia, with its significant reserves of many metals required for electrolyzer production. China compensates for the shortage of certain resources with advanced raw material processing. The European Union has to rely on import diversification. Japan, on the other hand, is almost entirely dependent on foreign supplies, and therefore, appears to be the most vulnerable among the study participants.
According to the authors of the study, the current situation is in many ways reminiscent of the global oil market after the 1970s energy crises.
At that time, many countries sought to reduce their dependence on a limited number of oil suppliers. Over time, these risks were significantly mitigated through import diversification, domestic production development, creation of strategic reserves, and expansion of international cooperation. The scientists believe that hydrogen industry is facing a similar challenge.
Overall, the study shows that transition to low-carbon energy does not eliminate the problem of resource dependence; it merely changes its nature. While in the 20th century, with its sustainability of energy systems determined by availability of oil, gas, and coal, in the 21st century, the role of metals required for production of electrolyzers and other renewable energy infrastructure is constantly growing.
