Europe could reach up to 78% self-sufficiency in its lithium needs by 2036 through domestic production, while recycling of end-of-life batteries would not become a significant lithium source in the coming years. This is the conclusion drawn by the researchers at Lund University and the Stockholm Environment Institute in Sweden, who made the first comprehensive assessment of the prospects for lithium production, recycling, and consumption in the region.
Nowadays, Lithium is referred to as the “new oil” of the electrification era. Without it, mass battery production for electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and portable electronics would be impossible. As fossil fuel phase-out accelerates, the demand for this metal is rising, while its production still remains concentrated in a limited number of countries. Therefore, reliable access to lithium is becoming one of the key conditions for a successful energy transition in Europe.
Assessing the feasibility of the plans for import dependence reduction, the scientists analyzed future demand for lithium through 2036, evaluated the prospects of European mining projects, and calculated the volumes of lithium which are likely to return to the economy through recycling of end-of-life batteries. In addition, they accounted for the impact of new battery types, including lithium-free sodium-ion batteries.
Projections indicate that electric vehicles will remain the dominant driver of lithium. Under the baseline scenario, they are supposed to account for nearly 60% of annual demand by 2036. Electric trucks and vans, energy storage systems for power grids, and other applications of lithium, ranging from electronics to glass and ceramics manufacturing, will also account for a significant share of demand.
The study has revealed an unexpectedly high potential for domestic lithium production in Europe. In particular, the researchers identified about 20 deposit development projects in nine European countries. If all of them are implemented on schedule, European sources could meet up to 78% of the region’s lithium demand by 2036, depending on the level of demand. Moreover, by 2030, the European Union could significantly exceed its own target of meeting at least 10% of its needs through domestic production.
However, this scenario largely depends on how quickly new mines could be brought online. If the projects face concurrent delays in permitting and investing, the self-sufficiency rate might be several times lower than projected.
The conclusion about recycling batteries turned out to be equally important. Contrary to the widespread expectations, end-of-life batteries will fail to become a major source of secondary lithium in the coming years. The fact is that modern batteries last much longer than previously thought: many remain functional for 15–18 years or more. This means that a significant portion of batteries will end up in recycling much later than the developers of European standards anticipated.
Owing to these amounts, there simply won’t be enough end-of-life batteries to meet the European requirements for content of recycled lithium in new batteries: the EU aims to increase this share to 6% by 2031 and 12% by 2036.
So, in the coming decade, new mining projects will remain the main source of lithium for Europe, while more efficient use of raw materials and the development of alternative battery technologies will help curb the demand growth. Recycling will remain an important element of a closed-loop economy, but its contribution to ensuring the region’s raw material independence in the foreseeable future will be significantly less than what is considered to be today.
