Increasing the population’s access to clean cooking fuels by just 10% could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly one-fifth, while the same 10% increase in electricity access – by almost a quarter. This is the conclusion drawn by the researchers from the University of North Bengal, Aligarh Muslim University, Central University of Jharkhand, and Banaras Hindu University in India, who analyzed the G20 countries data during the period from 2000 to 2022. Their study shows that a widespread adoption of modern fuel sources and a reliable electricity supply to households could become one of the most effective tools for reducing CO₂ emissions.
The G20 account for the majority of the world’s gross domestic product and represent more than half of the global population. But if in Australia, Germany, and Japan almost everyone has been cooking with gas or electricity for a long time, in India, Indonesia, and South Africa this rate has been rising rapidly for only the last two decades. At the same time, about 2.7 billion people across the world still cook with firewood, coal, dung, and other traditional fuels, which not only increases greenhouse gas emissions but also degrades the indoor air quality, resulting in millions of premature deaths.
The extent to which the transition to modern energy sources could affect the climate has so far been a matter of debate. To find the answer to this question, the researchers analyzed World Bank data on 19 G20 countries for over a twenty-year period (the European Union and the African Union, as collective members of the group, were not included in the analysis). In addition to the emissions data, the analysis took into account population size, urbanization levels, income, foreign trade volumes, foreign investment inflows, household access to electricity, and prevalence of clean cooking technologies.
The results confirmed that access to clean cooking fuels, primarily liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas, is consistently linked to lower carbon dioxide emissions. It is calculated that an increase of 10% in population coverage with these fuels would reduce per capita CO₂ emissions by approximately 19%. Expanding access to electricity could have an even larger effect: a 10% increase in electricity coverage could reduce emissions by approximately 23%.
Yet, paradoxically, economic growth remains one of the main drivers of increased emissions. The study shows that a 10% increase in GDP per capita is accompanied, on average, by a rise in CO₂ emissions of approximately 6.4%. In other words, economic growth without a simultaneous adoption of cleaner technologies, causes the environmental burden to rise. The researchers also revealed that the increasing integration of countries into international trade is currently linked to rising emissions, which is logically explained by an increase in production and transportation volume.
Of particular interest are the findings on the difference between short-term and long-term effects. In the short term, there is little evidence of a link between the spread of clean energy and emissions reduction. However, in the long term, the impact is clearly visible. This suggests that the transition to modern energy sources does not yield immediate results but exerts its influence gradually, as the energy consumption structure changes and traditional fuels are phased out.
For the developing G20 countries, the role of clean energy proved to be even more significant. A separate analysis of this group revealed a significantly stronger correlation between adoption of clean fuels, electrification, and emissions reductions. The coefficients of the statistical model have been so high that they indicate a particularly large potential for reducing emissions as the countries phase out firewood, coal, and other traditional fuels. The researchers attribute this to the fact that many developing economies remain in the early stages of their energy transition, so every new step toward modern energy sources makes a more noticeable effect than in countries where this transition completed years ago. At the same time, economic growth remains the main driver of rising emissions, and urbanization also contributes to their increase in the long term, by boosting energy consumption and transportation demand.
Overall, the study shows that converting millions of households to modern fuels and ensuring a reliable electricity supply can bring not only social but also climate benefits. However, we should not wait for immediate results: the effects become noticeable only after several years. The authors believe that G20 countries must not only expand public access to gas and electricity but also simultaneously develop renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and encourage adoption of environmentally friendly technologies. In this case, energy affordable for every home could become one of the key tools for reducing global carbon dioxide emissions.
