Cuba could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation by nearly two-thirds without increasing the cost of producing electricity, provided it transitions to a hybrid power system featuring renewable energy sources and large-scale energy storage. This is the conclusion reached by researchers from the Federal University of Itajubá in Brazil and the University of Turku in Finland, who modeled three scenarios for the country’s power-sector development up to 2050.
Cuba’s power system is in a critical state. Most thermal power plants were built between 1960 and 1980 and have already exceeded their standard service life of 25-30 years. Equipment deterioration and a chronic shortage of spare parts – caused by decades of economic embargo – lead to regular blackouts and forced load-shedding. At the same time, Cuba possesses enormous renewable energy potential: average annual solar radiation exceeds 1,800 kWh per square meter, wind potential exceeds 2,000 MWe, and biomass from sugarcane and the rapidly spreading marabou shrub could serve as an additional sustainable energy source.
Taking this potential into account, the researchers constructed three scenarios for Cuban power-sector development through 2050.
The first scenario reflects the current plans of the Cuban government, as set out in the National plan for economic and social development up to 2030 and Decree-Law No. 345. This scenario envisages a gradual expansion of solar capacity to 2,706 MWe, retention of a significant share of thermal generation, and conversion of 45% of state-owned transport to electric power.
The second scenario goes beyond the current targets. It assumes a reduction in thermal plant capacity to a reserve level of 1,500 MWe, expansion of wind power to 820 MWe, construction of concentrating solar thermal plants and ocean thermal energy conversion facilities, as well as large-scale deployment of energy storage systems totaling 1,302 MWe.
The third scenario models a full transition to renewable energy by 2050, with complete electrification of transport and maximum utilization of biomass, wind, and solar power.
The modeling conducted by the researchers showed that under the first – so-called government – scenario, the share of renewable generation reaches only 35.5% by 2050, well below the stated target of 100%. Moreover, because thermal generation is retained and even expanded to cover baseload, greenhouse gas emissions initially decline toward 2030 but then begin to rise again, reaching 12.82 million tons of CO₂-equivalent by 2050. Thus, despite short-term gains, this pathway merely locks the country into long-term fossil-fuel dependence and leaves the economy highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.
The modeling of the second scenario painted a very different picture. Limiting thermal plant capacity to 1,500 MW, combined with large-scale energy storage systems (600 MWe of pumped-hydro storage and 702 MWe of battery storage), would allow emissions to fall to 4.21 million tons of CO₂-equivalent by 2050 – a 67% reduction compared with the government scenario. At the same time, annual electricity generation costs would be roughly $200 million lower, thanks to substantial savings on imported fuel.
Modeling of the third, so-called ideal, scenario confirmed that full carbon neutrality of the power sector is technically achievable. However, this would require enormous capital investment and a colossal increase in biomass generation capacity, to 6,733 MWe. Such a solution would require extensive land use and create significant competition between the energy sector and agriculture.
The researchers additionally tested how Cuba’s power system would respond to a ±5% change in electricity demand from the residential and commercial sectors. It turned out that in all scenarios, the additional demand is met primarily by wind power. However, the outcomes differ substantially. In the flexible power system envisaged by the second scenario, demand growth leads to additional emission reductions, as new wind farms displace the remaining thermal capacity. Under the government scenario, by contrast, increased demand leads to higher emissions, as older thermal plants burn more fuel.
The researchers note that the model they used does not allow for real-time simulation of power system operation and does not account for local grid characteristics. Furthermore, the calculations assume that the necessary investment is available, whereas in reality Cuba’s energy development is hindered by financial constraints and difficulties in attracting capital. Nevertheless, even within these limitations, the modeling shows that it is the second hybrid scenario, combining renewable energy expansion, energy storage systems, and limited use of thermal generation, that represents the most realistic and economically efficient pathway for modernizing Cuba’s power system.
