Global warming is changing the nature of navigational risks in the Arctic: with the shrinking sea ice cover, hazardous fogs that reduce visibility for ships are occurring more frequently along the Northern Sea Route. This is the conclusion reached by scientists from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), who have studied shifts in weather patterns in the Kara Sea over the past half-century.
The Kara Sea is one of the key sections of the Northern Sea Route – the main transport corridor between Europe and Asia through the Arctic. Today, this route is serviced by ice-class tankers Arc 7, each measuring approximately 300 meters in length. With visibility below 200 meters, safe navigation of such vessels becomes significantly more difficult, whereas a reduction in visibility to 50 meters is classified as a hazardous meteorological phenomenon.
For their study, the scientists analyzed data from two Arctic meteorological stations – “Dikson Island” in the southwest of the Kara Sea and “E.K. Fedorov Meteorological (OGMS) Station” at Cape Chelyuskin – for the period ranging from 1966 to 2021. This made it possible to compare conditions during the relatively cold climatic period of 1966 -1991 and the era of modern Arctic warming.
The analysis showed that visibility deterioration in this region historically had two seasonal peaks – in winter and summer. In winter, the primary cause was and remains blizzards occurring during strong winds. In summer, however, fogs are beginning to play an increasingly significant role. As sea ice melts, the open water surface evaporates moisture more intensively, saturating the surface air layer. As a result, fogs form more frequently than before.
It is precisely the summer increase in the number of fogs that has become one of the most noticeable consequences of climate change in the region.
At the “E.K. Fedorov Meteorological Station” on Cape Chelyuskin, over the last three decades, the summer peak visibility degradation has been even greater than that experienced in winter. Whereas previously the most difficult navigational conditions were created by winter blizzards, now summer fogs are beginning to pose an increasing danger.
Thus, when planning navigation in the Arctic, it is no longer sufficient to consider only the ice situation. With warming climates, forecasts for fog and rapid hydrometeorological updates for ships, which significantly impact navigation safety, have become increasingly crucial.
