Alexander Dynkin doesn’t believe in a sharp abandonment of hydrocarbon fuel
Alexander Dynkin, President of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO) considers there will be no sharp refusal from hydrocarbon fuel at the global level, and 2030-2035 may be the peak of demand for oil.
He made his statement at the first online session “Russia and the Postcovid World” of the international forum “Primakov Readings”, organised by IMEMO, Interfax, and supported by the Global Energy Association."I absolutely do not believe in a sharp refusal of hydrocarbons. We should seriously think about it, and unambiguous oil write - off is certainly not an option. In my opinion, competition in oil markets will intensify, and there will be a race for capitalisation of available natural resources," Dynkin said, answering the question of Pavel Korolev, Vice President for Development and Projects of the Global Energy Association, who took part in the event.
According to academician, in 2030-2035 there will be a so-called peak in oil demand. He said: “If prices fall to $ 35 per barrel, and this is the forecast of both Goldman Sachs and the US Department of Energy, then this peak in oil demand will naturally shift to the right, because oil will remain profitable”.
He pointed out, that on the verge of a pandemic the theme of “green” growth and “green” investments have distracted the attention of political elites and corporations from the threat of a coronavirus in a certain sense. “Although many famous people, such as an American publicist Nassim Taleb, spoke of the threat of the pandemic, they didn’t listen to it.”
For his part, the session moderator, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for international cultural cooperation, Mikhail Shvydkoy, added that, according to Shell's forecast, hydrocarbons will still play a decisive role in providing energy resources for the next 30-40 years. “Moreover, in the forties there will be an explosive amount of coal mined, because this economic segment, which is very expensive today, will be in demand. And here, it seems to me, it is necessary to maintain a reasonable balance. On the one hand they say, let's quit and engage in new technologies, but on the other, we don’t need to look at hydrocarbons as a curse, it is a huge blessing.”
Academician Dynkin had also advocated the rejection of the expression “to get off the oil needle.” “I have been hearing this term for 20 years. I’m sick and tired of it, because all other countries dream of getting on this oil needle, and Russia has to get off. Look how the Americans got hooked on this oil needle, and became the largest oil producer. It seems to me that this term should be excluded from professional discussion.”
According to Shvydkoi, the future of electric vehicles is not that simple as well. He said: “To charge an electric car, you need to put the plug into a power outlet. The energy will be supplied to it by a thermal station, that runs on gas, or in the best-case scenario for green energy supporters, it will be electricity received from hydro resources”.